Singapore, 19 January 2023 – Supported by steadfast tourism recovery, prime first-storey retail spaces in Orchard/Scotts Road witnessed the strongest rental growth of 7.4% for the whole of 2022. Meanwhile, rents in the Fringe/Suburban Areas grew by 6.7% and Other City Areas by 3.7%.
This is according to EDMUND TIE’s quarterly market performance report, Real Estate Times Q4 2022, that is released today.
Average retail rents (S$ per sq ft per month)
Source: EDMUND TIE Research
Overall retail demand continued to strengthen for the second consecutive quarter. In Q3 2022[1], the islandwide net absorption recorded 323,000 sq ft, a four-fold increase from 86,000 sq ft registered in the previous quarter. With demand outpacing supply, the overall occupancy rate edged up in Q3 2022 by 0.4 percentage points to 92.2%. This is also the highest level recorded since Q4 2019.
Mr Lam Chern Woon (蓝振文), Head of Research and Consulting at EDMUND TIE, says, “With the bulk of the supply pipeline slated to come onstream in 2023, including The Woodleigh Mall, and retail shops at One Holland Village, Guoco Midtown and IOI Central, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to be balanced this year. This is also amid strengthening demand for retail space with brightening recovery prospects for the sector. Nonetheless, we take caution in considerable headwinds in the year ahead, which may reduce consumer spending and cap rental growth.”
As tourism recovery continues, with the expectation of a further boost from China’s easing of measures, prime first-storey retail rents in Orchard/Scotts Road in 2023 are expected to sustain its growth of between 7% and 9%, while those in other retail sub-markets are forecast to grow between 3% and 6%.
Highlights of other real estate sectors:
Industrial
- Rents of first-storey multiple-user factory stood at S$1.94 psf in Q4 2022, reflecting a tapering in growth of 1.8% qoq, on the back of the manufacturing slowdown. Nonetheless, full-year rental growth was between 5.6% and 7% in 2022, a nearly two-fold increase from the previous year’s increase of 2.7%-3.4%.
- Overall, the economic headwinds are likely to moderate industrial rental growth. The seemingly large supply pressures are likely to be ameliorated by completion pushbacks, and self-use by industrialists.
- In 2023, warehouses are expected to outperform amid sustained demand, with rental growth forecast to be around 6%. In line with the growth of advanced manufacturing, rents of high-tech spaces are projected to record growth of between 6% and 7%.
Investment
- Total investment sales reached S$27.6 billion in 2022, a 12% increase from S$24.6 billion in 2021. This was despite a slowdown in investment activity in Q4 2022, which stood at S$4.2 billion, a 12% decrease from Q3 2022.
Sectoral contribution to investment sales in whole of 2022
- Turning to the collective sales market, while the residential segment will be fairly subdued this year, more traction will be seen from the hospitality, office and retail segments. This is on the back of the recent acceleration in tourism recovery, as well as demand for modern quality offices with a focus on well-being and sustainability.
Office
- Average monthly gross rents (S$ per sq ft)
Source: EDMUND TIE Research *Ungraded
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- Amid tight supply, office rental growth will likely continue in 2023, albeit at a more moderate pace due to slowing economic growth. Premium and Grade A office rents are expected to rise in 2023 by 2-4% and 1-3%, respectively.
Residential
- As more new homes are expected to be completed next year, this would likely alleviate the pressure on the tight rental market, moderating the pace of growth in 2023. Demand will continue to be largely supported by local first-time home buyers, although the tighter financing environment will weigh on overall home sales.
- Given the higher launch pipeline expected for 2023, primary sales could reach 8,000-9,000 units this year, up from about 7,100 units in 2022.
- Considering the economic and geopolitical headwinds, as well as rising interest rates, property price growth could moderate to 1-3% for 2023, from 8.4% in 2022.
[1] Based on latest real estate statistics released by URA.
Click for the full Real Estate Times, Q4 2022.
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